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# Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics
- URL: https://www.murrayrudd.pro/bitcoin-supply-demand-and-price-dynamics/
- Published: 2025-08-14T17:46:40.000Z
- Updated: 2025-10-21T04:56:38.000Z
- Description: We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.
- Author: Murray Rudd
- Tags: Price modeling, #research

Here is the SSRN link for a new working paper now out: [https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5386623](https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5386623?ref=murrayrudd.pro)

This is a followup paper on our first modeling paper: [https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18020066](https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18020066?ref=murrayrudd.pro)

For a quick rundown on the content, see my thread on X: [https://x.com/DrMurrayRudd/status/1955312083932942417](https://x.com/DrMurrayRudd/status/1955312083932942417?ref=murrayrudd.pro)

I will be posting various example scenarios and further content over the next while - follow me on *X* to get messages of when these come out. 

Here is part of the abstract for the paper:

> ...A Monte Carlo simulation that randomly sampled across all five key variables found a 75% likelihood that Bitcoin price will exceed US $4.81 million by April 2036\. Generally, prices from the low single-millions to the low tens-of-millions per coin by 2036 emerge under broad parameter sets; hyperbolic paths to higher price levels are relatively rare and concentrate when liquid supply falls near or below 2 million Bitcoin and withdrawal sensitivity is low...