Original Research

Bitcoin confronts the global monetary order with an unprecedented experiment of absolute scarcity in a system built on elastic credit. Bitcoin’s trajectory will be set less by protocol rules than by governance choices.

Introduction to our Bitcoin price modeling framework for non-technical readers, with example of the impact of a single 500,000 Bitcoin purchase

Our Bitcoin price forecast framework is based on aggregate market supply and demand ‘working together’ to figure out equilibrium prices.

We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.

Leveraging a modified, AI-assisted horizon scanning approach and analysis of 1,900 hours of 2024 Bitcoin-focused podcasts distilled with LLMs, it converts thousands of raw “threats and opportunities” into a preliminary research agenda.

I used an AI-assisted ‘key questions’ approach to: (1) analyze transcriptions from 1,818 Bitcoin podcast episodes from 2024; (2) identify Bitcoin-oriented threats and opportunities; and (3) create and refine a list of 100 policy-salient Bitcoin research questions.

I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled “Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counterfactual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds.” Eric had the idea for this project, which asked ‘what if’ US

I’m happy to announce that we have a new working paper from Satoshi Action Education! It is pretty light on math, so I’m not giving a full summary here - just click on the link in the citation below to go to SSRN and download the paper there. Citation: Rudd

A Bitcoin science roadmap could identify research priorities and capacity-building opportunities across environmental, social, financial, economic, and security dimensions

I’m happy to announce that our new journal article, “A supply and demand framework for Bitcoin price forecasting,” was published today and is now available for free download from the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. Click on the link below: A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price ForecastingWe

This post gives a non-technical summary of our new Satoshi Action working paper. We developed a Bitcoin supply-and-demand framework and model for forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories out to 2036.

Our new study explores a novel integration of Bitcoin mining with landfill gas-to-energy (LFGTE) projects to enhance methane mitigation efforts.

Full article summary: Rudd, M.A., 2023. Bitcoin is full of surprises. Challenges 14, 27. In this article - my own from 2023 - I explore how a Pragmatist approach can bridge left-leaning progressive values with Bitcoin’s diverse potential benefits, particularly in areas important to progressives.

Full article summary: Rudd, M.A., 2024. 40 questions for shaping a policy-salient Bitcoin research agenda, SSRN preprint.

This paper explores possibilities for integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into horizon scanning and key question exercises to navigate the challenges posed by emerging technologies.

This paper explores possibilities for integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into horizon scanning and key question exercises to navigate the challenges posed by emerging technologies.

In this post, I run one of my own articles through the AI summarizaton process: Rudd, M.A., et al 2023. Bitcoin and its energy, environmental, and social impacts: an assessment of key research needs in the mining sector. Challenges 14, 47.

Our findings suggest that Bitcoin mining can help reduce wasted renewable energy, provide financial benefits to renewable energy producers, and lower electricity prices for consumers.

The breadth of knowledge required to answer key questions highlights the need to build research capacity, encourage collaborative cross-sectoral and -disciplinary research, and develop a prioritized research agenda.