Relay Policy, Consensus, and Bitcoin’s Governance
The October 17, 2025 episode of What is Money features Jameson Lopp examining how relay-policy disputes intersect with consensus rules and governance.
Latest
Japan’s Policy Crossroads and Bitcoin’s Liquidity Exposure
The October 20, 2025 episode of Bitcoin for Millennials features Roberto Rios (Peruvian Bull) explaining how Japan’s currency-versus-bonds trade-off can ignite global deleveraging that hits Bitcoin first.
Standardness, Miner Centralization, and Data Limits
The October 17, 2025 episode of Tone Vays Podcast features Luke Dashjr and Bitcoin Mechanic dissecting Core v30’s standardness changes. They assess whether OP_RETURN sizing and inscription pathways expand large non-financial payloads that raise legal exposure and concentrate mining.
Policy vs Consensus: Lessons from the Core v30 and Knots Debate
The October 16, 2025 episode of Tone Vays Podcast features Adam Back and Jimmy Song examining how Bitcoin Core v30 aligns relay policy with network behavior.
Quantum Risk, AI Math, and Bitcoin Governance
The October 15, 2025 episode of the Isabel Foxen Duke podcast features Martin Shkreli assessing whether quantum computing or AI-assisted mathematics could threaten ECDSA-secured Bitcoin.
ETF Flows, Treasury Finance, and Censorship Resistance
The October 15, 2025 episode of the Tim Kotzman podcast features Adam Back analyzing how institutional flows and treasury strategies are reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure.
Bitcoin–CRE Convergence: Energy, Credit, and Operating Edge
The October 20, 2025 episode of TFTC features Chris Drzyzga outlining how aging U.S. commercial real estate and higher operating costs change risk and return.
Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics
We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.
Draft Bitcoin horizon scan book online
Leveraging a modified, AI-assisted horizon scanning approach and analysis of 1,900 hours of 2024 Bitcoin-focused podcasts distilled with LLMs, it converts thousands of raw “threats and opportunities” into a preliminary research agenda.
2024 Bitcoin research horizon scan
I used an AI-assisted 'key questions' approach to: (1) analyze transcriptions from 1,818 Bitcoin podcast episodes from 2024; (2) identify Bitcoin-oriented threats and opportunities; and (3) create and refine a list of 100 policy-salient Bitcoin research questions.
What if US states had invested in Bitcoin in 2018?
I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled "Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counterfactual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds."
Eric had the idea for this project, which asked '
Update - Bitcoin pricing framework / model published!
I'm happy to announce that our new journal article, "A supply and demand framework for Bitcoin price forecasting," was published today and is now available for free download from the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. Click on the link below:
A Supply and Demand Framework
Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counter-factual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds
Rainy Day Funds (RDFs) help U.S. states manage fiscal shortfalls and shocks but often rely on low-risk, low-yield investments that erode under inflation. In this paper, we test whether partial allocations to Bitcoin and gold bolster RDF performance from 2018 to 2024.
Forecasting Bitcoin Price Trajectories Using Supply and Demand Dynamics
This post gives a non-technical summary of our new Satoshi Action working paper. We developed a Bitcoin supply-and-demand framework and model for forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories out to 2036.