Example of a Bitcoin price model
Introduction to our Bitcoin price modeling framework for non-technical readers, with example of the impact of a single 500,000 Bitcoin purchase
Original Research
Understanding Bitcoin Supply & Demand - A Backgrounder
Our Bitcoin price forecast framework is based on aggregate market supply and demand 'working together' to figure out equilibrium prices.
Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics
We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.
2024 Bitcoin research horizon scan
I used an AI-assisted 'key questions' approach to: (1) analyze transcriptions from 1,818 Bitcoin podcast episodes from 2024; (2) identify Bitcoin-oriented threats and opportunities; and (3) create and refine a list of 100 policy-salient Bitcoin research questions.
What if US states had invested in Bitcoin in 2018?
I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled "Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counterfactual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds."
Eric had the idea for this project, which asked '
Update - Bitcoin pricing framework / model published!
I'm happy to announce that our new journal article, "A supply and demand framework for Bitcoin price forecasting," was published today and is now available for free download from the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. Click on the link below:
A Supply and Demand Framework
Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counter-factual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds
I'm happy to announce that we have a new working paper from Satoshi Action Education! It is pretty light on math, so I'm not giving a full summary here - just click on the link in the citation below to go to SSRN and download the