Example of a Bitcoin price model
Introduction to our Bitcoin price modeling framework for non-technical readers, with example of the impact of a single 500,000 Bitcoin purchase
Price modeling
Understanding Bitcoin Supply & Demand - A Backgrounder
Our Bitcoin price forecast framework is based on aggregate market supply and demand 'working together' to figure out equilibrium prices.
Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics
We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.
What if US states had invested in Bitcoin in 2018?
I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled "Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counterfactual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds."
Eric had the idea for this project, which asked '
Update - Bitcoin pricing framework / model published!
I'm happy to announce that our new journal article, "A supply and demand framework for Bitcoin price forecasting," was published today and is now available for free download from the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. Click on the link below:
A Supply and Demand Framework
Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counter-factual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds
Rainy Day Funds (RDFs) help U.S. states manage fiscal shortfalls and shocks but often rely on low-risk, low-yield investments that erode under inflation. In this paper, we test whether partial allocations to Bitcoin and gold bolster RDF performance from 2018 to 2024.
Forecasting Bitcoin Price Trajectories Using Supply and Demand Dynamics
This post gives a non-technical summary of our new Satoshi Action working paper. We developed a Bitcoin supply-and-demand framework and model for forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories out to 2036.