The Coldcard incident is still unfolding but the lesson is already clear
Over the past few days, the Coldcard failure has moved from an alarming report about a cluster of drained wallets to a much broader custody event.
Read the analysisIndependent research and advice
Research for decisions before the evidence settles
We study Bitcoin, AI, energy and compute systems, and the institutional rules shaping their adoption - then translate emerging evidence into clearer choices for policy and strategy
How FIR works
From emerging signal to decision
Evidence becomes useful when its institutional pathway is explicit
- 01DetectWhat has changed—and how certain is the signal?
- 02InterpretWho faces pressure to respond, and what do they value?
- 03AssessWhich capacities and rules enable, block, or redirect action?
Current posts
Research articles, model code, and public analysis spanning Bitcoin, AI, energy systems, and institutional change, connected by a common concern: how institutions shape and respond to fast-moving technologies.
AI impact framework
The aim of this paper is to give researchers and policymakers a common map for connecting partial measures of AI’s economic effects without treating technical capability, adoption, and public benefit as if they were the same thing.
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When AI-driven science outpaces its institutions
AI also changes the economics of scientific attention. Where generating plausible hypotheses becomes cheaper, the scarce resource shifts toward judgment.
Read the analysisResearch areas
One institutional lens, applied across changing systems
FIR's most established technology-specific research focuses on Bitcoin. The same institutional and economic lens extends to AI, energy and compute systems, and governance under rapid technological change.
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Bitcoin, money, and institutional change
Bitcoin economics, adoption, custody, mining and energy, protocol governance, policy, and the institutional consequences of digital scarcity.
AI, institutions, and economic adaptation
Measurement architectures, adaptation demand, labor and organizational adjustment, and anticipatory governance.
Energy and compute systems
Flexible loads, AI infrastructure, grid integration, environmental performance, and resource constraints.
Governance under technological change
Institutional latency, policy design, scenario analysis, and adaptation when evidence remains incomplete.
Advisory
Clarity for decisions that cannot wait for settled evidence
FIR works with organizations facing consequential choices in Bitcoin, AI, energy and compute systems, and institutional adaptation.
Book a free introductory callCommissioned research
Focused studies, technical syntheses, and decision-ready reports.
Policy and regulatory analysis
Mechanism-led assessment of rules, incentives, and implementation risks.
Technology and governance assessment
Institutional due diligence for emerging systems and infrastructure.
Scenarios and research agendas
Structured exploration of pathways, evidence gaps, and strategic options.
Forthcoming book
When Evidence Falls Behind: Bitcoin, AI, & the Governance of Fast Systems
A forthcoming Bitcoin-oriented book about how fast technological systems outrun the institutions expected to govern them: download draft chapters here.
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Cross-cutting, credible evidence
Futures Insight Research is an independent research and advisory practice based in British Columbia. Our work focuses largely on Bitcoin; our institutional economics approach is also being applied to AI, infrastructure, and other fast-changing systems.
About Futures Insight Research