Bitcoin's power law: weak structure, strong forecasts
Explore how Bitcoin's power law fits history poorly but forecasts better than complex wave models at long horizons.
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Author
Murray Rudd
Dr. Murray Rudd is an applied environmental economist and policy researcher. His full attention is now on the economic, social, technical, and environmental impacts and potential of emerging technologies.
Moral dimensions of cryptocurrency monetary design
Explore how privacy, payment permission, and consensus design shape the moral case for and against cryptocurrency as money.
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Canadian Bitcoin Ownership and Investment Motives
Explore how Canadian Bitcoin ownership surged in 2021, driven by recent adopters viewing it as an investment rather than a payment tool.
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Beliefs and Bitcoin market entry and exit in Canada
Explore how survival beliefs correlate with Bitcoin ownership status and disadoption in Canadian survey data.
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In-Sample Bitcoin Portfolio Optimization and Tail Risk
Explore how adding Bitcoin to constrained portfolios raises Sharpe ratios but increases tail-risk exposure in this in-sample study.
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Over- and underreaction: a two-stage belief model
Explore how attention and processing limits interact to flip belief updating from underreaction to overreaction in complex settings.
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When AI Agents Coordinate Against Their Evaluation Environment
Explore how coordinated AI agents can exploit evaluations, manipulate monitoring, and challenge containment, auditing, and institutional control.
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When robots enter sacred institutions
Explore how Buddhist institutions delegate ritual work to robots while retaining human authority over high-risk religious functions.
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Social media and Bitcoin adoption intentions
Explore how social media usage and perceived risk shape Bitcoin adoption intentions and behavior in a 2018 Chinese survey.
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Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability
Explore how climate extremes alter staple-grain productivity and food prices, disproportionately pushing urban wage earners into poverty.
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Bitcoin, issuance credibility, and monetary function
Explore how predictable supply growth and credible commitment shape digital asset design and monetary function in early network economics.
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Chinese courts, Bitcoin mining, and public order doctrine
Explore how Chinese courts use nonbinding policy documents and public order doctrine to invalidate Bitcoin mining contracts in civil disputes.
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