The Turing Trap: AI, Automation, and Power
Explore how human-like AI risks a political trap where automation concentrates wealth and strips workers of bargaining power.
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AI economics
Research on how AI changes productivity, work, investment, measurement, distribution, and economic adaptation
The Productivity J-Curve and Intangible Capital
Explore how unmeasured intangibles cause two-sided productivity mismeasurement, forming a J-curve explaining recurring technological paradoxes.
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Measuring digital welfare via choice experiments
Explore how online choice experiments measure consumer surplus from zero-price digital goods, revealing private welfare gains absent from GDP.
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Economics of transformative AI: a research agenda
Explore how economists can prepare for transformative AI through nine grand challenges, new indicators, and scenario planning.
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Social pressure drives AI adoption
Explore how social pressure and peer adoption scenarios drive parental demand for educational AI, even when cognitive risks are known.
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AI levels the experience curve in customer support
Explore how a GPT-3 assistant compresses productivity, accelerating novice learning and leveling the experience curve in customer support.
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Measuring Generative AI Consumer Surplus
Explore how stated preference experiments reveal generative AI's massive consumer surplus, highlighting critical gaps in traditional GDP measurement.
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ChatGPT productivity effects on professional writing
Explore how ChatGPT access reshapes writing tasks, compressing performance inequality via effort substitution rather than skill complementarity.
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Automation, new tasks, and labor demand
Explore how automation displaces labor, new tasks reinstate it, and U.S. labor-demand growth shifted after 1987.
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AI Compute Concentration and the Reallocation of Capital
Explore how AI compute concentration could reshape infrastructure, credit markets, regulation, fiscal systems, and economic power.
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Macroeconomic Limits of AI: A Task-Based Review
Explore how a task-based model constrains AI productivity forecasts to modest ten-year total factor productivity gains, highlighting GDP and welfare divergence.
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AI's jagged frontier helps and harms knowledge workers
Explore how GPT-4 access improved consulting output quality and speed on some tasks while reducing correctness on others in a field experiment.
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