Why Your Bitcoin Price Model is Probably Wrong (and How to Fix It)
Explore how a synthetic, constraint-based model tests support for competing Bitcoin price trajectories and how evidence helps distinguish them
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Murray Rudd
A power law is not a theory of Bitcoin price
Bitcoin’s long-run price scaling is real. But supply, adoption, and market structure suggest it is better understood as an empirical regime.
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AI impact framework
The aim of this paper is to give researchers and policymakers a common map for connecting partial measures of AI’s economic effects without treating technical capability, adoption, and public benefit as if they were the same thing.
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Leverage, Synthetic Exposure, and Bitcoin Supercycle Dynamics
The February 06, 2026 episode of the Robin Seyr Podcast features Murray Rudd explaining why Bitcoin supercycles emerge from shifts in marginal demand, marginal supply, and leverage rather than sentiment alone.
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Bitcoin Mining, Methane Mitigation, and Grid Flexibility
The January 17, 2026 episode of the Abundant Mines podcast features Murray Rudd examining Bitcoin mining through energy economics, grid behavior, and methane mitigation.
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Modeling Bitcoin’s Supply, Liquidity, and Policy Trajectories
The September 06, 2025 episode of the Robin Seyr Podcast features Murray Rudd outlining a supply-and-demand price modeling framework for Bitcoin that highlights how fixed supply and shifting demand interact to produce price volatility.
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Bitcoin Supply Shock: Energy and Market Dynamics
On March 08, 2025, the Mr.M Podcast featured Murray Rudd discussing Bitcoin’s fixed supply, energy repurposing for mining, and the impact of institutional dynamics. The conversation highlighted an impending supply shock and emerging financial innovations.
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The Truth Behind Bitcoin’s Power Law: Rigor Versus Hype
In this post, I offer an opinion & deep dive into Bitcoin’s “power law” claims, rigorously examining whether the extreme price movements observed in Bitcoin’s history truly follow a heavy-tailed distribution.
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Bitcoin Supply Shock: Policy and Economic Implications
In the January 23, 2025 episode of the Robin Seyr podcast, Murray Rudd outlines how a contraction in Bitcoin’s liquid supply may lead to a dramatic supply shock, while highlighting opportunities in renewable energy integration and state financial innovation.
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Forecasting Bitcoin Price Trajectories Using Supply and Demand Dynamics
This post gives a non-technical summary of our new Satoshi Action working paper. We developed a Bitcoin supply-and-demand framework and model for forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories out to 2036.
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Challenging Bias in the ECB’s Bitcoin Analysis
Our paper critiques the recent working paper by Bindseil and Schaff (2024), which presents a negative assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term viability, framing it as a speculative asset with limited intrinsic value and significant risks.
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An integrated landfill-gas-to-energy and Bitcoin mining framework
Our new study explores a novel integration of Bitcoin mining with landfill gas-to-energy (LFGTE) projects to enhance methane mitigation efforts.
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