Why Your Bitcoin Price Model is Probably Wrong (and How to Fix It)
Explore how a synthetic, constraint-based model tests support for competing Bitcoin price trajectories and how evidence helps distinguish them
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Price modeling
Exploring Bitcoin's price trajectory: an interactive supply-demand model
How high could Bitcoin's price go – and what drives it there? This interactive tool, available at Github, lets you explore the answer
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Example of a Bitcoin price model
Introduction to our Bitcoin price modeling framework for non-technical readers, with example of the impact of a single 500,000 Bitcoin purchase
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Understanding Bitcoin Supply & Demand - A Backgrounder
Our Bitcoin price forecast framework is based on aggregate market supply and demand 'working together' to figure out equilibrium prices.
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Bitcoin supply, demand, and price dynamics
We develop a bottom-up, quantity-clearing model of Bitcoin price formation that couples its fixed 21-million-coin cap with plausible demand growth and execution behavior.
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What if US states had invested in Bitcoin in 2018?
I recently led the writing for a Satoshi Action Education report, coauthored with Eric Peterson and Dennis Porter, entitled "Strategic portfolio allocations for
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Strategic portfolio allocations for financial resilience: a counter-factual analysis of Bitcoin and gold in US state Rainy Day Funds
Rainy Day Funds (RDFs) help U.S. states manage fiscal shortfalls and shocks but often rely on low-risk, low-yield investments that erode under inflation. In this paper, we test whether partial allocations to Bitcoin and gold bolster RDF performance from 2018 to 2024.
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Forecasting Bitcoin Price Trajectories Using Supply and Demand Dynamics
This post gives a non-technical summary of our new Satoshi Action working paper. We developed a Bitcoin supply-and-demand framework and model for forecasting Bitcoin price trajectories out to 2036.
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