GPT-4 capability atlas and AGI sparks
Explore how early GPT-4 shows unprecedented cross-domain breadth but exposes profound architectural limits in planning and explanation fidelity.
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Research review notes
Reviews of the credibility, utility, and implications of research papers. Each current (2026) AI-assisted review uses a two-stage prompt. First, an editorial sweep examines what the paper actually says and extracts core claims. Second, a research review pass creates the raw material for each note. Besides the claims, I also include a bit about how this paper fits into the broader literature, remaining information gaps, and the paper's broader implications.
AI levels the experience curve in customer support
Explore how a GPT-3 assistant compresses productivity, accelerating novice learning and leveling the experience curve in customer support.
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Measuring Generative AI Consumer Surplus
Explore how stated preference experiments reveal generative AI's massive consumer surplus, highlighting critical gaps in traditional GDP measurement.
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Volitional pragmatism and choice under indeterminacy
Explore how volitional pragmatism reframes choice, belief updating, and public policy under deep indeterminacy and endogenous preferences.
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El Salvador's Bitcoin Adoption: A Structural Political Economy
Explore how dollarization and remittance dependence shaped El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption beyond political narratives and technological solutionism.
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Ecosystem Graphs: Mapping the AI Supply Chain
Explore how ecosystem graphs map foundation model dependencies, revealing supply chain opacity and providing a schema for AI transparency.
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Bitcoin's decentralized protocol and ecosystem trade-offs
Explore how Bitcoin's protocol design reshapes transaction costs, risk allocation, and regulatory leverage through layered decentralization.
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Anonymous cooperation and early Bitcoin security
Explore how anonymous group cooperation explains early Bitcoin survival despite extreme mining concentration and vulnerability to majority attacks.
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Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin
Explore how a rising Bitcoin price may redistribute wealth from latecomers to early holders even without a crash.
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Mapping expert consensus on transformational adaptation
Explore how a global Delphi panel maps agreement and structured disagreement on the defining elements of transformational climate adaptation.
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Global adaptation data gaps
Explore how global datasets fail to track adaptation action, revealing a mismatch between risk measurement and policy progress under the GGA.
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Adaptation Research: Policy Outputs Versus Outcomes
Explore how large-n adaptation studies measure reporting artifacts rather than outcomes, and why policy alignment offers a better evaluative path.
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